The economy has hit a hinge moment. For the past few years, inflation has been the big economic story — the fixation of economic policymakers, journalists and almost everyone who goes to the grocery store. But economists now largely see inflation as tamed. It’s still a major political issue; the country continues to reel from years of rising prices, and there is a real affordability crisis. But that isn’t all the next administration will have to deal with. So what does it mean to fight the next economic war rather than the last one?Jason Furman is an economics professor at Harvard and a former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under Barack Obama. Furman has closely tracked the inflation crisis over the past few years, and he’s deeply knowledgeable about how economic policy is made.In this conversation, we discuss why the inflation crisis upended the expectations of so many economists and what we’ve learned for the next time inflation strikes, what he expects to see with mortgage rates and the housing market, the upcoming fight over Donald Trump’s expiring tax cuts, the good and the bad in Kamala Harris’s housing policy and why there seems to be so little concern from either party about the ever-growing U.S. debt.Mentioned:“<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/17/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-oren-cass.html" target="_blank">The Economic Theory Behind JD Vance’s Populism</a>” with Oren Cass on The Ezra Klein Show“<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/09/economic-arguments-tariffs-trump/680015/">Trump’s Most Misunderstood Policy Proposal</a>” by Oren Cass“<a href="https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/2024-09/furman2024-09-27.pdf" target="_blank">In Defense of the Dismal Science</a>” by Jason FurmanBook Recommendations:<a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-us/How+the+World+Became+Rich%3A+The+Historical+Origins+of+Economic+Growth-p-9781509540235" target="_blank">How the World Became Rich</a> by Mark Koyama and Jared Rubin<a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/530240/the-goodness-paradox-by-richard-wrangham/" target="_blank">The Goodness Paradox</a> by Richard Wrangham<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/books/the-ladies-paradise/paper" target="_blank">The Ladies’ Paradise</a> by Émile ZolaThoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/column/ezra-klein-podcast" target="_blank">nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast</a>. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.html" target="_blank">https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs</a>.This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, with Kate Sinclair. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Isaac Jones, Efim Shapiro and Aman Sahota. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Annie Galvin, Elias Isquith and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Tyler Cowen, Veronique de Rugy, Desmond Lachman, Lindsay Owens, Nathan Tankus, Isabella Weber and Sonia Herrero.
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The economy has hit a hinge moment. For the past few years, inflation has been the big economic story — the fixation of economic policymakers, journalists and almost everyone who goes to the grocery store. But economists now largely see inflation as tamed. It’s still a major political issue; the country continues to reel from years of rising prices, and there is a real affordability crisis. But that isn’t all the next administration will have to deal with. So what does it mean to fight the next economic war rather than the last one?

Jason Furman is an economics professor at Harvard and a former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under Barack Obama. Furman has closely tracked the inflation crisis over the past few years, and he’s deeply knowledgeable about how economic policy is made.

In this conversation, we discuss why the inflation crisis upended the expectations of so many economists and what we’ve learned for the next time inflation strikes, what he expects to see with mortgage rates and the housing market, the upcoming fight over Donald Trump’s expiring tax cuts, the good and the bad in Kamala Harris’s housing policy and why there seems to be so little concern from either party about the ever-growing U.S. debt.

Mentioned:

“The Economic Theory Behind JD Vance’s Populism” with Oren Cass on The Ezra Klein Show

“Trump’s Most Misunderstood Policy Proposal” by Oren Cass

“In Defense of the Dismal Science” by Jason Furman

Book Recommendations:

How the World Became Rich by Mark Koyama and Jared Rubin

The Goodness Paradox by Richard Wrangham

The Ladies’ Paradise by Émile Zola

Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.

You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.

This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, with Kate Sinclair. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Isaac Jones, Efim Shapiro and Aman Sahota. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Annie Galvin, Elias Isquith and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Tyler Cowen, Veronique de Rugy, Desmond Lachman, Lindsay Owens, Nathan Tankus, Isabella Weber and Sonia Herrero.

The Economy Is at a Hinge Moment